Brian Macdonald has done some regression analysis to develop a formula to predict goal scoring at individual and team levels that he calls “Expected Goals”. For even handed play …
ExpectedGoals = -1.34 + 0.31*Goals + 0.03*Shots + 0.03*HitsAgainst – 0.03*Hits + 0.04*TotalFaceoffs
all per 60 minutes of ice time.