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A Regression-based Adjusted Plus-Minus Statistic for NHL Players

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Brian Macdonald has developed an adjusted plus-minus statistic for NHL players that is independent of both teammates and opponents (addressing the largest of many deficiencies of the plus-minus stat).  He has used data from the NHL’s shift reports in a weighted least squares regression to estimate an NHL player’s effect on his team’s success in scoring and preventing goals at even strength. Both offensive and defensive components of adjusted plus-minus are given, estimates in terms of goals per 60 minutes and goals per season are given, and estimates are given for forwards and defensemen.


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