In the beginning it was demonstrated that GF and GA predicted wins with very high confidence. Pythagoras and Poisson ruled the day. And we were enlightened.
But what were the drivers of GF and GA? Perhaps offensive style, shooting talent, shot quality, defensive style and goaltending talent? Nice try but it turns out that, to twist an old Bill Clintonism, “It’s puck possession, stupid”. Of course! How could we have missed that. Enter Corsi and Fenwick. And we were enlightened.
But what are the drivers of Corsi and Fenwick? Do successful Corsi teams hold the puck well? Do they gain control over loose pucks? Do they force turnovers better? Do they command the boards? Do they pass better? Do they shoot a lot? Or is it better back chcking? How about cycling well? Could it start with faceoffs? Fenwick says shot blocking matters. All good candidates, but where is the light?
Now is the time of Tulsky. Eric and his disciples are showing us that the biggest driver of Corsi is neutral zone play. Surprised? Read their work.
Using Zone Entry Data To Separate Offensive, Neutral, And Defensive Zone Performance (PDF)