A Closer Look at the Relative Age Effect in the NHL
At young ages, a few extra months of development can make a big difference in size,strength, and athletic ability. A child who turns 5 years old in January will be nearly 20% older by the time a child...
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2011 NHL Review
Alan Ryder delivers his wall-to-wall review of the NHL’s 2010-11 season, revealing most valuable individual performances in the league. 2011 NHL Review (PDF) 2011 NHL Player Contribution Data...
View ArticleThe Loser’s Curse: Overconfidence vs Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft
Cade Massey and Richard Thaler analyze the decision making of National Football League teams during their annual player draft where the stakes are high. The volume of data makes this a rich environment...
View ArticleDefense Independent Goaltender Ratings
Michael Schuckers has advanced our understanding of Shot Quality, and therefore goaltending, by the use of Spatially Smoothed Save Percentage Maps. The result is DIGR – a defense independent rating of...
View ArticleExpected Goals
Brian Macdonald has done some regression analysis to develop a formula to predict goal scoring at individual and team levels that he calls “Expected Goals”. For even handed play … ExpectedGoals = -1.34...
View Article2012 Player Usage Charts
Rob Vollman’s player usage charts show how players are used and how they performed at even-strength by mapping the percentage of shifts they started in the offensive zone (horizontal axis) against the...
View ArticleThe Pythagorean Won-Loss Formula and Hockey
Kevin Dayaratna and Steven Miller develop a theoretical underpinning for the Pythagorean Won-Loss Formula in hockey based on the Weibull Distribution, including an assessment of the independence of GF...
View ArticleUsing Zone Entry Data To Separate Offensive, Neutral, And Defensive Zone...
In the beginning it was demonstrated that GF and GA predicted wins with very high confidence. Pythagoras and Poisson ruled the day. And we were enlightened. But what were the drivers of GF and GA?...
View ArticleCareer Forecasts for Crosby and Ovechkin
The case may be developing that Ovechkin is the NHL’s best-ever goal scorer It has been a while since I considered the career outlooks for Crosby and Ovechkin (I last looked at this in my 2011 NHL...
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ELO Ratings for the NHL
The NHL turns 100 soon. That means I have been reflecting a great deal on the past. And that has led to ‘ELO’ ratings for the National Hockey League. The ELO rating system is a method for comparing...
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